Monthly Whisky Market Watch by Jamie Timoney – February 14, 2018
As expected, the volume and value of bottles being sold on the UK secondary market continued to increase (Jan 2017 vs Jan 2018) providing a very early full-year 2018 estimate of over 93,000. Even more impressively, early-year forecasts show £ values breaking the £30m mark during 2018.
The benchmark Apex 1000 Index managed a +2.21% increase through January 2018. The last 5 years January performances average out at +1.40%, confirming 2018 is off to a robust start. January is typically one of the quieter months of the year, so this confirms - for the right bottle(s) - values are continuing to firm-up due to rarity/scarcity and demand.
Mitigating Q3 2017’s fall of -4.67% in one fell-swoop, The Port Ellen Index gained +13.37% showing greater gains than the whole of 2017 (+5.59%). To a large degree this increase was powered by a 2008 Feis Ile bottle selling for a record £4,600. Remove this bottle from the calculation and we still see a broader market beating performance of +7.54%. Are Port Ellen values hardening?
The Flora & Fauna Index ranked as the worst performer - underperforming even the negative indices. We see this as a natural correction following some exceptional results for certain bottles at the end of 2017 (e.g. the Dailuaine cream cap variant hitting £900).
With regards to the Japanese Icon 100, the ‘Hanyu Card releases’ have shown contradictory results with the ‘Ace of Diamonds’ variant at the top of the Index while the ‘Joker’ variant has dropped to the bottom.
A buoyant start to the year, almost continuing where 2017 left off.
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